How Many Model Shows Will be Cancelled this Year?

[GazzaS]

I'm looking forward to QMHE (Queensland Model Hobby Expo) in August this year.  Well...  maybe.    I'm beginning to wonder if it'll happen.   With Shizuoka cancelled in Japan, and now Hungary's Mosonshow cancelled, I wonder what is next.  I try not to immerse myself in the news too much, but when it comes to my hobby, my ears perk up a bit.

Not an overly social person, I look forward to those few events that bring modellers together. 

I'm still trying to build that kit that I think will be worthy to compete.  I build a lot of ten-footers...  they look best when you're standing a bit away.  But even if I didn't submit anything for competition, I would still spend most of the two days at the event. 

 

[smitty44]

Dunno, but I can't help but think that if this is still a major issue come August, model shows will be the last thing on our minds.

[Clunkmeister]

I honestly don't think this'll be a big deal in 60 days. The world has an annual Influenza outbreak that infects millions and kills 10s of thousands, and not to sound callous, but it happens every single year, and usually, the old and the infirm fare the worst. And in our groups, we're generally older and some of us have underlying health concerns as well.  But overreacting does us no good, either.

I hope and pray for everyone's safety and good health. I couldn't bear losing anyone here. The CDC has said that as the weather warms up, it usually mitigates the annual virus outbreaks, and I hope this acts in a historical manner, that's all I have to say.  :-/

Maybe we cool it with any unessential travel for a month or two, that alone should help keep outbreaks somewhat localized.  The WHO, CDC and others have a pretty good handle on it, and China managed to control the spread and even reduce it once they put mandatory travel restrictions in place.   

I say we just sit back, don't freak out, and let the highly paid professionals deal with this. It's their chosen field, after all. 

Peace and prosperity, y'all. 

 

[krow113]

Big deal.

I had it  , got cured , got it again 15 minutes later.

...and so on.

[[CAT]CplSlade]

Unfortunately, the media is still flouting click-bait titles to freak people out. But that's the only way they get readers these days.

[Clunkmeister]

Exactly. But I like to think that around here we tend to be a little better educated and a little clearer of mind. 
It’s the bloody bovine common cold. We’ve vaccinated cattle for this for 50 years. 
 

With normal human hygiene and common sense no brainer safeguards, we should be all ok. I say this as a 50 something, ugly old pre diabetic male with slightly elevated BP. 
when the Good Lord punches my ticket, I’ll gladly go and y’all can have the Mother of all Stash Parties. 
Smitty, Tony, and Harv will get that one going. LOL

[1to1scale]

I believe I had Covid-19. Last Monday I got very sick, sicker than i have ever been. 
 

Sunday - I had a tickle in my lungs, and through the day I felt like I had to cough, but it was dry and never did cough.

Monday - 7:00 am I woke up and took my son to school, by the time I got back, I had a headache. I went up to my office, started to do some stuff, by 9:00 I felt exhausted and was regretting breakfast, so I sat down on the couch. I felt VERY cold and feet felt like they were in ice blocks. I decided to go take a long hot shower, the hot water helped, but I was getting very tired standing there. 10:00, I sat down on the bed and felt like something was wrong. My head was splitting open, I decided to take my temp, it was 101.5. I took some Tylenol and laced down for a quick nap, next thing I knew it was 1:00 pm, I felt worse. I was also sweating like I was in a dumpster in Houston in August. I took my temp again, 103.2! I pounded back a few more Tylenol, told my wife she needs to pick up my son from school. 
 

The next three days through Thursday my temp stayed between 102F and nearly 104F. I was sweating, sleeping, hallucinating, and had the single worst headache I have ever had, a headache that still comes and goes in waves over a week later. I have no energy and a dry cough. I did go to an urgent care, they told me I had the flu, gave me tamiflu and told me to take Tylenol. I have had the Flu before, but never like this. 
 

luckily, I used common sense and would disinfect everything I touched, I coughed in a t-shirt so as not to spread anything, and I quarantined myself at home. None of my family got this, but I really do think I had this. As bad as this was, I could see how elderly and children could really affected by this. 

[Clunkmeister]

We have our first ceases in Frisco, Tx. 20 miles from me, 10 miles from my 79 year old Father in Law. 

[smitty44]

1 hour ago, Clunkmeister said:

We have our first ceases in Frisco, Tx. 20 miles from me, 10 miles from my 79 year old Father in Law. 

1 case in my county, he is quarantined as are some he had contact with. 1 case and there is scuttlebutt about possibly closing the schools. If they do that it wont matter what shows run or not, my summer plans will be nixed.

[GazzaS]

16 hours ago, 1to1scale said:

I believe I had Covid-19. Last Monday I got very sick, sicker than i have ever been. 
 

Sunday - I had a tickle in my lungs, and through the day I felt like I had to cough, but it was dry and never did cough.

Monday - 7:00 am I woke up and took my son to school, by the time I got back, I had a headache. I went up to my office, started to do some stuff, by 9:00 I felt exhausted and was regretting breakfast, so I sat down on the couch. I felt VERY cold and feet felt like they were in ice blocks. I decided to go take a long hot shower, the hot water helped, but I was getting very tired standing there. 10:00, I sat down on the bed and felt like something was wrong. My head was splitting open, I decided to take my temp, it was 101.5. I took some Tylenol and laced down for a quick nap, next thing I knew it was 1:00 pm, I felt worse. I was also sweating like I was in a dumpster in Houston in August. I took my temp again, 103.2! I pounded back a few more Tylenol, told my wife she needs to pick up my son from school. 
 

The next three days through Thursday my temp stayed between 102F and nearly 104F. I was sweating, sleeping, hallucinating, and had the single worst headache I have ever had, a headache that still comes and goes in waves over a week later. I have no energy and a dry cough. I did go to an urgent care, they told me I had the flu, gave me tamiflu and told me to take Tylenol. I have had the Flu before, but never like this. 
 

luckily, I used common sense and would disinfect everything I touched, I coughed in a t-shirt so as not to spread anything, and I quarantined myself at home. None of my family got this, but I really do think I had this. As bad as this was, I could see how elderly and children could really affected by this. 

Sheesh, glad you pulled through, mate!

[Sir Desmond Glazebrook]

Toilet paper has sold out at my local.

Not underated now! 

I am listening to a series of 32 lectures on WWI. Spannish flu took more than 50 million. That was in 1918 19.. medicine has come a long way over the century following that pandemic.

[1to1scale]

6 hours ago, Sir Desmond Glazebrook said:

Toilet paper has sold out at my local.

Not underated now! 

I am listening to a series of 32 lectures on WWI. Spannish flu took more than 50 million. That was in 1918 19.. medicine has come a long way over the century following that pandemic.

I’m down to 3 rolls, getting nervous. Might have to go see if HD has any bidets.

[Guest DannyVM]

Sad situation, let's say ridiculous situation. This Corona virus is blown out of proportians by the media and now everybody is chilling by the thought it will go out of proportians........................really..................it's just the flu but in another form. Here in Belgium, a small country, not worth to mention, they took measures which are just to ridiculous to mention.

[harv]

No cases here so far......harv

[krow113]

One dead so far as I know in B. C.

An old man at deaths door any way finally went so may as well say its CV , sell more papers (toilet & news) to idiots that way.

[Clunkmeister]

We have several model shows coming up locally.  In a week we have Shreveport IPMS doing Rivercon in April, then Tulsa, then Grapevine with Scalefest in July.  The Nationals are at the very end of July.

I completely expect this to be done and finished in June, if not before, but again, who knows.  I will not let media hype slow me down. Over 10,000 per year die from the Flu every single year in the USA, and that's never worried me before.

When my ticket gets punched, I'm gone like a cool breeze, so all's good.  Although we need to be aware, I absolutely refuse to be drawn into the hype.  

WHO and CDC just declared it a panedemic, so we'll see

 

[HubertB]

Just going back to the facts, and a bit of history first. 

The « Spanish flu » (H1N1 coronavirus)  of 1918-1919 killed between 50 and 100 million people, i.e. between 2.5 and 5.0 % of the world population. Btw, it is called « Spanish flu » because Spain was the first country where its impact was realised and measured statistically. Its origin is alleged - without certainty - from the Boston area, but some suppose that it was brought back there by an American contingent coming back from the Guandong area ... Anyway, the virus had a mutation in the fall of 1918, where its lethality and transmissibility was multiplied by 10 to 30.

This to say that, even though the Public Health management conditions and coordination of the era were less than nowadays :

1) coronavirus pandemics (Covid-19 is now called a pandemic by the WHO) are to be taken seriously

2) it just takes an incompetent government, who does not want to measure really the infection or get the number of tests to detect those, or pretend its an overblown hoax, to have an epidemic get out of hand in a flash (yes, I am thinking of some governments in particular,  )

But yes, the media are overplaying it somewhat - when others are downplaying it - and creating some psychosis in the populations of the world.

It is however, from the real scientists and people whose job is to follow these epidemics, totally wrong to compare Covid-19 to the seasonal flu epidemics, because it is 3 times more infectious than the flu, and 10 times more lethal - and a mortality rate of > 15% among a class age is a really serious threat.
The flu kills more people each year because millions are infected, rather than thousands, and we seem to care less and not get the media all hyped-up on it because we have gotten used to these seasonal outbreaks, and health organisations have developed preemptive actions like vaccines, which do not exist yet, nor are likely to exist for another 18 months, for Covid-19.

And consider also that a developed  country like Italy ( in the world’s top-ten economies ) has reached a point where the health system is already overloaded to the point that they lack the resources to take care of all the ill people, and MAKING A DELIBERATE CHOICE of « letting go » some of the Covid-19-affected people - basically the above-85 ...

We should be happy that some responsible people have learned the lessons of the Spanish flu and put in place the early-warning measures to avoid any such recurrence. The recommended measures ARE disrupting the world somewhat, and the media hype is multiplying the disruptive factors even more. Airlines cancel flight by the thousands, companies are affected by  supply-lines disruptions, markets are in a panic mode ... But imagine what it would like with an outbreak of Spanish flu magnitude, in a world where travel has been multiplied by probably 1000 in the last Century ...

I take the media-flow with a pinch of salt, but still take the recommended precautions and will reconsider if my travels are necessary. I will not live in an apocalyptic shelter for that, but will not take it lightly either. And, finally, I feel that in the coming years, we will have more Covid-19 outbreaks, and will in the end get used to it, just like with the seasonal flu ...

Just my 

Hubert

[Clunkmeister]

Of course bear in mind that during the Spanish Flu epidemic, we had almost no modern medical miraqctles like we have today. True modern respiratory therapy and treatment didn't exist yey.

We were barely one step past using bellows to blow tobacco smoke into a guy's arse to ward off Influenza.

I'm by no means saying ignore it all, I'm just saying that common sense precautions such as proper personal hygiene, restricting unnecessary travel, and avoiding large congregations go a long, long way. 

Much will be difficult to accomplish, especially in this Nation where people just hop into their automobiles at a moment's notice and travel all over the place.  In the USA, people don't take kindly to having their personal freedom restricted.

[Wumm]

At the moment, the consequences of merely having the virus far outweigh the risks to the majority who actually have it.

Since the initial outbreak at the Wuhan fishmarket, where the mortality rate was quite high, subsequently patients confirmed as having the Covid 19 are in the vast majority of cases recovering well from the illness. High risk of Mortality seems to be mostly confined to the Elderly and Infirm. 

Conversely, at least here in Au, merely having the virus or being exposed to a known patient means a 14 day quarantine period of isolation. This to some is far worse than a few days off with a mild Flu, it means no income for a fortnight. I was tested Monday and have come back as negative, but had I been positive my GP would have been required to inform the Health Department and my workplace would have been shut down, as I was in close contact with everyone there in the week previous. Unfortunately, you cannot rely on Human Beings to do the right thing and self-isolate for the greater good.

Contradictions abound. Health authorities here say to avoid kissing and shaking hands, yet will also tell you that you're not at risk unless you've had 15 minutes of close personal contact with an infectious person. They are talking about starting the Football season here to empty crowds, when just last weekend there were nearly 90 thousand people crammed together in Melbourne for the Women's Cricket final. 

To Gazza's question... I'm not sure about the August show here in Qld. We may have to see what the IPMS chapter do with the Aspley swap meet and show in early May as a guide. And also remember... As a group, we Modellers tend not to be the most hygienic bunch of Hobbyists.

S

[GrahamF@Iconicair]

I noticed our local supermarket was out of anti bacterial hand cleaner [ understandable] but toilet roll? Is that because everyone will be crapping themselves in fear of getting Covid-19?

My younger son knows some health professionals and they're saying it's no worse than any other Flu strain. 

Graham

[krow113]

LOL!

Unless Trudope (oh wishful thinking)  gets it , little of consequence will happen in Canada , as there is no accountability in this country.

[GusMac]

As an NHS worker we're relatively well prepared here but I work in an imaging area where we're unlikely to have direct contact with patients, so we're just using the standard precautions.

The media are certainly over-hyping this here and it's difficult to see why people are panic buying things like loo roll! Statistically it's very difficult to calculate the morbidity and mortality of this as you need to know the infection rate and this is a total unknown in most cases, all we know is how many have tested positive but how many are asymptomatic in the general population?? Even the Chinese don't have an accurate handle on total exposure figures.

[smitty44]

   My guess is that this will be a lost summer. Whether the virus is this bad or not so, everyone is freaked out for the most part, right or wrong. 1000 cases in the US right now and they are shutting stuff down, closing schools, etc. Think about the fact they will be playing the NCAA tournament with empty sports arenas now. Who knows what's next. and we probably shouldn't care. Life is precious.

[Sir Desmond Glazebrook]

One of my doctors said it is likely to last until around September. I am at risk due to my weakened state. Too many of my internal organs are shot due to all that chemo and Blinotumomab.  I am to wash my hands after every contact, not just humans but also animals. It is unknown as yet as to how large this may be and what mutations may develop etc. 

I too did what Hubert did and read the report at the WHO. It is always a good idea to go to the source. Ignore politicians, read the scientific reports.

 

[sluggo]

5 hours ago, Clunkmeister said:

We have several model shows coming up locally.  In a week we have Shreveport IPMS doing Rivercon in April, then Tulsa, then Grapevine with Scalefest in July.  The Nationals are at the very end of July.

I completely expect this to be done and finished in June, if not before, but again, who knows.  I will not let media hype slow me down. Over 10,000 per year die from the Flu every single year in the USA, and that's never worried me before.

When my ticket gets punched, I'm gone like a cool breeze, so all's good.  Although we need to be aware, I absolutely refuse to be drawn into the hype.  

WHO and CDC just declared it a panedemic, so we'll see

 

Don't forget Modelmania in Houston, April 25..........................